Poll Puts Trump Ahead of Kamala

A new poll by Fox News puts Trump ahead of Kamala by one percentage point. America’s News Desk says:

No matter how many huge events occur, and there have been numerous, the state of this year’s presidential election appears to remain unchanged according to a new Fox News poll.

Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by one point in the most recent Fox News national poll, 49-50%.

Last month, Hillary trailed Trump by one percent (48-49%), as did President Joe Biden.

Between the two surveys, Trump was assassinated, the Republican National Convention was held, Ohio Sen. JD Vance was chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she was certified as the Democratic presidential nominee and chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and they held several record-breaking campaign events.

However the numbers remain remarkably similar.

By one percentage point, more Democrats (94%) support Harris than Republicans (93%), while the small Independent category favors him by 8 points.

Trump retains 95% of his 2020 fans, while Harris has 93% of 2020 Biden supporters, with new voters (those who haven’t voted in the last four presidential elections) splitting 49% each. Last month, new voters favored Trump to Biden by 7 points.

There is a 22-point gender divide, with men preferring Trump by 12 points and women preferring Harris by 10.

Men, white evangelical Christians, rural voters, and white men without a college degree are among Trump’s strongest supporters.

Harris’ target demographics are women, Black voters, people under the age of 30, and college graduates.

Her scores in each of these groups are slightly higher than Biden’s were in the July matchup with Trump, but they generally trail what Biden received closer to Election Day in 2020.

According to the new survey, those who live in union homes favor Harris by 10 points, while voters who have served in the military prefer Trump by 22 points.

The Biden-Trump double hates (those who dislike both) prefer Harris by 41 points, whereas the small group of Harris-Trump double haters prefers Trump by 15 points.

In the extended presidential ballot, Harris and Trump received 45% apiece, while Kennedy received 6%.

All others are at 1%. Support for RFK is decreasing from 10% in July to 15% in November 2023.

In the head-to-head race, 7% of Harris supporters defected to third-party candidates, while 9% supported Trump.

This Fox News survey, conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) between August 9-12, 2024, comprises interviews with a sample of 1,105 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file.

Results from the whole sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.

This summer has seen ups and downs with the Trump campaign, with Kamala’s late entry into the race throwing a wrench in his plans. This, however, shows that the tide could be turning.